March 15, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Crusaders 7.65 10.46
Stormers 6.03 6.59
Bulls 5.17 4.16
Waratahs 3.99 4.98
Reds 3.29 5.03
Blues 2.99 2.87
Sharks 1.31 0.87
Chiefs 0.63 -1.17
Hurricanes 0.31 -1.90
Highlanders -3.22 -5.69
Cheetahs -4.36 -1.46
Force -6.44 -4.95
Brumbies -6.82 -6.66
Lions -9.78 -10.82
Rebels -14.08 -15.64

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 24 18 – 19 -3.10 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 24 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 24 18 – 13 7.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 25 19 – 23 9.00 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 21 – 25 4.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 39 – 26 13.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 27 – 25 -4.90 FALSE
8 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 02 29 – 14 -0.70 FALSE
9 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 02 19 – 35 -15.40 TRUE
10 Lions vs. Hurricanes Mar 02 28 – 30 -3.90 TRUE
11 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 03 27 – 24 -10.40 FALSE
12 Reds vs. Force Mar 03 25 – 20 15.10 TRUE
13 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 03 19 – 51 -1.40 TRUE
14 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 03 15 – 12 10.00 TRUE
15 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 09 19 – 24 14.70 FALSE
16 Force vs. Hurricanes Mar 09 19 – 46 2.50 FALSE
17 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Mar 10 24 – 23 2.20 TRUE
18 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Mar 10 18 – 17 -3.40 FALSE
19 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 10 11 – 6 25.10 TRUE
20 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 10 32 – 20 16.30 TRUE
21 Bulls vs. Blues Mar 10 23 – 29 9.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 16 Chiefs 11.90
2 Stormers vs. Blues Mar 16 Stormers 7.50
3 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 17 Hurricanes 8.00
4 Waratahs vs. Force Mar 17 Waratahs 14.90
5 Sharks vs. Reds Mar 17 Sharks 2.50
6 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Mar 18 Cheetahs -5.20

 

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »