May 30, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 15

Team Ratings for Week 15

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.08 10.46 -1.40
Stormers 5.92 6.59 -0.70
Bulls 5.23 4.16 1.10
Sharks 4.30 0.87 3.40
Chiefs 2.75 -1.17 3.90
Reds 0.72 5.03 -4.30
Hurricanes 0.49 -1.90 2.40
Waratahs -0.01 4.98 -5.00
Brumbies -0.02 -6.66 6.60
Highlanders -1.63 -5.69 4.10
Cheetahs -2.92 -1.46 -1.50
Blues -5.73 2.87 -8.60
Force -8.17 -4.95 -3.20
Lions -10.87 -10.82 -0.10
Rebels -12.44 -15.64 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls May 25 28 – 22 1.30 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 26 66 – 24 12.80 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Highlanders May 26 20 – 27 1.80 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Reds May 26 12 – 13 4.70 FALSE
5 Force vs. Lions May 26 17 – 11 7.40 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Waratahs May 26 35 – 34 1.70 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Stormers May 26 25 – 20 2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 01 Crusaders 15.20
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Jun 01 Brumbies -7.90
3 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 02 Chiefs -4.00
4 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 Waratahs 4.00
5 Lions vs. Sharks Jun 02 Sharks -10.70
6 Bulls vs. Stormers Jun 02 Bulls 3.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar

    Your stats ring true with form. But I just cannot understand how you can have a -4.00 for the Chiefs game, when one team is at the top of the table and the other the bottom? You must be looking at an historical home advantage that is not relevant this season – and the “home” game in this instance is not at the blues “fortress”

    12 years ago

    • avatar

      Well, I don’t think the prediction was too bad in the end. Note that the Blues have had a bad season on wins, but haven’t actually lost badly except against the Crusaders. They also had one win seriously against form, namely against the Bulls in South Africa.

      As for home ground advantage, I am happy that it exists and needs to be taken into account. Some games are at neutral venues, but I find it hard to argue that North Harbour is a neutral venue. It may not be as much a home ground as Eden Park, but then you are faced with how much to discount the usual home ground advantage. I just went with the value I always use.

      12 years ago