June 8, 2012

NRL Predictions, Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 14, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.17 4.63 7.50
Broncos 5.71 5.57 0.10
Wests Tigers 4.47 4.52 -0.00
Bulldogs 3.70 -1.86 5.60
Sea Eagles 2.70 9.83 -7.10
Cowboys 1.58 -1.32 2.90
Warriors 1.51 5.28 -3.80
Rabbitohs 1.00 0.04 1.00
Dragons -1.20 4.36 -5.60
Sharks -2.41 -7.97 5.60
Titans -3.13 -11.80 8.70
Roosters -3.76 0.25 -4.00
Knights -4.18 0.77 -5.00
Panthers -4.58 -3.40 -1.20
Eels -7.79 -4.23 -3.60
Raiders -9.53 -8.40 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.18%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 01 28 – 12 -3.30 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 01 20 – 8 7.72 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jun 02 0 – 40 -3.69 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jun 02 23 – 18 7.62 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 03 12 – 22 -5.42 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 03 50 – 24 12.18 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Sharks Jun 04 29 – 20 -2.76 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 Storm 12.20
2 Knights vs. Raiders Jun 09 Knights 9.90
3 Sharks vs. Titans Jun 10 Sharks 5.20
4 Roosters vs. Broncos Jun 10 Broncos -5.00
5 Panthers vs. Warriors Jun 11 Warriors -1.60

 

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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