October 29, 2012

Auckland still larger than Wellington

Stuff, this time:

Auckland teenagers had the highest number of convictions for drink-driving, with 1553 in the past two years.

Christchurch teenagers weren’t far behind, with 1383, while 793 Hamilton teenagers were convicted and 728 Wellingtonians.

That’s out of a national total of about 9700 per two years (so this could also have been in our ‘think of a number and double it’ series).  Based on total population it looks as though the drink-driving rate in Auckland is about half that in the rest of the country — and any journalist should know that Auckland is roughly 1/3 of the country and Wellington and ChCh are each very roughly 1/3 of Auckland.

With a few minutes at Stats New Zealand we can check the denominators and see if teenagers are distributed differently than people.  At the 2006 Census, the number of 15-19 year olds was 99,000 for the Auckland region, 33,000 for the Wellington region, and 36000 for the Canterbury region (ChCh is about 60% of Canterbury), out of 300,000 for the whole country.  These follow the overall population pretty accurately

So, the numbers are showing a news story that’s the opposite of what was actually reported: Auckland has dramatically lower rates of conviction for drink-driving among teenagers than the country as a whole and than the other major cities.

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »