March 28, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.94 9.03 -0.10
Chiefs 8.51 6.98 1.50
Sharks 5.74 4.57 1.20
Stormers 3.93 3.34 0.60
Brumbies 3.83 -1.06 4.90
Hurricanes 2.21 4.40 -2.20
Bulls 1.65 2.55 -0.90
Blues -0.21 -3.02 2.80
Reds -1.31 0.46 -1.80
Cheetahs -3.51 -4.16 0.60
Highlanders -5.24 -3.41 -1.80
Waratahs -6.08 -4.10 -2.00
Force -9.29 -9.73 0.40
Kings -10.04 -10.00 -0.00
Rebels -13.95 -10.64 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 22 19 – 7 17.10 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Kings Mar 23 55 – 20 20.70 TRUE
3 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 23 23 – 18 0.30 TRUE
4 Force vs. Cheetahs Mar 23 10 – 19 -0.40 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Rebels Mar 23 64 – 7 17.30 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies Mar 23 35 – 22 2.40 TRUE
7 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 24 30 – 27 -2.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Mar 29 Highlanders 0.10
2 Hurricanes vs. Kings Mar 30 Hurricanes 16.20
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 30 Chiefs 11.20
4 Brumbies vs. Bulls Mar 30 Brumbies 6.20
5 Cheetahs vs. Rebels Mar 30 Cheetahs 14.40
6 Stormers vs. Crusaders Mar 30 Crusaders -1.00
7 Waratahs vs. Force Mar 31 Waratahs 5.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Andrew Reeves

    Hi David

    Please explain how you get the current rating ?

    11 years ago