NRL Predictions, Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 8.76 | 5.23 | 3.50 |
| Storm | 8.33 | 9.73 | -1.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.80 | 4.78 | -1.00 |
| Roosters | 3.34 | -5.68 | 9.00 |
| Bulldogs | 2.49 | 7.33 | -4.80 |
| Raiders | 2.34 | 2.03 | 0.30 |
| Knights | 1.42 | 0.44 | 1.00 |
| Titans | 0.99 | -1.85 | 2.80 |
| Panthers | -0.35 | -6.58 | 6.20 |
| Cowboys | -0.97 | 7.05 | -8.00 |
| Sharks | -1.04 | -1.78 | 0.70 |
| Warriors | -1.41 | -10.01 | 8.60 |
| Dragons | -2.70 | -0.33 | -2.40 |
| Broncos | -4.11 | -1.55 | -2.60 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.37 | -3.71 | -6.70 |
| Eels | -14.27 | -8.82 | -5.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 107 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Cowboys | Jun 14 | 16 – 22 | 4.97 | FALSE |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Jun 14 | 30 – 32 | 7.76 | FALSE |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Panthers | Jun 15 | 24 – 12 | 5.99 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Eels | Jun 15 | 32 – 14 | 17.67 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Titans | Jun 16 | 30 – 24 | 13.84 | TRUE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Knights | Jun 16 | 16 – 14 | 13.76 | TRUE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Warriors | Jun 16 | 12 – 23 | 14.31 | FALSE |
| 8 | Broncos vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 17 | 32 – 12 | 8.44 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | Jun 21 | Bulldogs | 3.60 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Jun 22 | Raiders | -8.20 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 23 | Rabbitohs | -18.50 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Storm | Jun 24 | Storm | -2.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi there
Was this one incorrect:
5 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 30 – 24 13.84 TRUE
11 years ago
No. The prediction was home team by nearly fourteen points. The home team won by 12 points, so the result of the game was correctly predicted. The predictions are assessed as TRUE or FALSE if the winning team is predicted correctly. The predicted margin indicates the likelihood of the prediction being true. It can be converted to give an actual probability, but I don’t do that.
11 years ago
Thanks for the quick reply – I thought the home team won by 6 – But sorry I thought you they were graded as true or false based on the points predictions. Thanks for the clarification.
11 years ago
Yes, sorry. Home team won by 6 points.
11 years ago