July 31, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 21, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.71 -5.68 17.40
Rabbitohs 10.15 5.23 4.90
Sea Eagles 8.34 4.78 3.60
Bulldogs 5.42 7.33 -1.90
Knights 5.11 0.44 4.70
Storm 1.73 9.73 -8.00
Warriors -0.25 -10.01 9.80
Raiders -0.31 2.03 -2.30
Sharks -1.60 -1.78 0.20
Panthers -2.57 -6.58 4.00
Cowboys -2.87 7.05 -9.90
Broncos -4.69 -1.55 -3.10
Dragons -4.72 -0.33 -4.40
Titans -5.63 -1.85 -3.80
Wests Tigers -8.35 -3.71 -4.60
Eels -15.19 -8.82 -6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.11%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jul 26 16 – 18 8.40 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jul 26 40 – 12 24.40 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 27 18 – 22 1.11 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jul 27 4 – 32 -7.11 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 28 30 – 22 1.15 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Panthers Jul 28 38 – 10 -0.16 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 28 12 – 28 1.36 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 18 – 36 -10.74 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Aug 02 Roosters -9.80
2 Knights vs. Broncos Aug 02 Knights 14.30
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 03 Warriors 5.80
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 Sea Eagles -19.00
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 Rabbitohs -8.50
6 Raiders vs. Storm Aug 04 Raiders 2.50
7 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Aug 04 Titans 7.20
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 05 Bulldogs -5.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »