NRL Predictions, Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 24, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 14.65 | -5.68 | 20.30 |
| Storm | 10.83 | 9.73 | 1.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 8.67 | 4.78 | 3.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 7.34 | 5.23 | 2.10 |
| Bulldogs | 5.02 | 7.33 | -2.30 |
| Cowboys | 3.30 | 7.05 | -3.70 |
| Knights | 2.90 | 0.44 | 2.50 |
| Sharks | -0.64 | -1.78 | 1.10 |
| Titans | -1.26 | -1.85 | 0.60 |
| Warriors | -2.75 | -10.01 | 7.30 |
| Broncos | -4.48 | -1.55 | -2.90 |
| Raiders | -5.70 | 2.03 | -7.70 |
| Dragons | -5.93 | -0.33 | -5.60 |
| Panthers | -6.78 | -6.58 | -0.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -13.48 | -3.71 | -9.80 |
| Eels | -15.45 | -8.82 | -6.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 168 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.31%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 16 | 22 – 10 | 0.96 | TRUE |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Eels | Aug 16 | 22 – 12 | 16.84 | TRUE |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | Aug 17 | 16 – 28 | -4.78 | TRUE |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Aug 17 | 22 – 10 | 8.33 | TRUE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Aug 17 | 18 – 22 | 0.01 | FALSE |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Panthers | Aug 18 | 24 – 28 | 11.66 | FALSE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Storm | Aug 18 | 10 – 23 | -1.04 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Roosters | Aug 19 | 14 – 56 | -19.04 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Aug 23 | Rabbitohs | 6.80 |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Broncos | Aug 23 | Panthers | 2.20 |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 24 | Dragons | 12.10 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Warriors | Aug 24 | Titans | 6.00 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Knights | Aug 24 | Cowboys | 4.90 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 25 | Sea Eagles | -9.90 |
| 7 | Storm vs. Eels | Aug 25 | Storm | 30.80 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Roosters | Aug 26 | Roosters | -10.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »