NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1
Team Ratings for Finals Week 1
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 11.27 | -5.68 | 17.00 |
| Storm | 10.28 | 9.73 | 0.60 |
| Sea Eagles | 7.75 | 4.78 | 3.00 |
| Cowboys | 6.88 | 7.05 | -0.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.08 | 5.23 | 0.80 |
| Knights | 4.33 | 0.44 | 3.90 |
| Bulldogs | 4.19 | 7.33 | -3.10 |
| Titans | 2.11 | -1.85 | 4.00 |
| Sharks | 1.61 | -1.78 | 3.40 |
| Warriors | -0.89 | -10.01 | 9.10 |
| Panthers | -2.57 | -6.58 | 4.00 |
| Broncos | -5.15 | -1.55 | -3.60 |
| Dragons | -8.18 | -0.33 | -7.90 |
| Raiders | -10.23 | 2.03 | -12.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.37 | -3.71 | -7.70 |
| Eels | -19.87 | -8.82 | -11.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 192 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.42%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Sep 05 | 16 – 11 | -7.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Sep 06 | 12 – 24 | 2.14 | FALSE |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Warriors | Sep 07 | 19 – 10 | -5.73 | FALSE |
| 4 | Storm vs. Titans | Sep 07 | 23 – 22 | 15.58 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | Sep 07 | 50 – 22 | 21.44 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Sep 08 | 26 – 38 | 21.52 | FALSE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Eels | Sep 08 | 54 – 6 | 23.87 | TRUE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Sep 08 | 18 – 38 | -4.18 | TRUE |
Predictions for Finals Week 1
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Sep 13 | Rabbitohs | 0.30 |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Sep 14 | Cowboys | -0.80 |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Sep 14 | Roosters | 3.50 |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | Sep 15 | Bulldogs | 4.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »