September 18, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 22.22 23.14 -0.90
Wellington 10.85 6.93 3.90
Auckland 7.52 9.02 -1.50
Counties Manukau 3.95 4.36 -0.40
Waikato 2.60 5.25 -2.70
Tasman -1.16 -6.29 5.10
Bay of Plenty -2.98 -1.96 -1.00
Taranaki -3.09 3.92 -7.00
Otago -3.59 -4.44 0.80
Hawke’s Bay -5.00 -6.72 1.70
North Harbour -6.52 -7.43 0.90
Northland -7.85 -8.26 0.40
Manawatu -9.45 -8.97 -0.50
Southland -10.77 -11.86 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 11 23 – 10 7.80 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 12 33 – 16 18.60 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 13 27 – 17 5.00 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Sep 13 23 – 12 -3.10 FALSE
5 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 14 42 – 24 -3.90 FALSE
6 Canterbury vs. Otago Sep 14 32 – 22 34.20 TRUE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Sep 15 44 – 7 6.70 TRUE
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Sep 15 31 – 26 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 18 Bay of Plenty 12.30
2 Auckland vs. Northland Sep 19 Auckland 19.90
3 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 20 Otago 10.40
4 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Sep 21 Counties Manukau 5.90
5 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 21 Canterbury -6.90
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 Taranaki 4.40
7 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 22 Tasman 8.30
8 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 22 Southland 0.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    simpiwe poswa

    Please explain why you have indicated TRUE in games 2 and 7 of the 12 & 14 September 2013 in the above table i.e round 5

    11 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      I am not sure that I understand your problem. First of all game 7 was on the 15th of September. In both games I predicted a win to the home team (the predicted margin was positive). Both home teams won, so my prediction was correct, so the value in the Correct column is given as TRUE.

      11 years ago

  • avatar
    shannon bryant

    what time do you update your site and post your results and picks for this weeks games.and the next round starting on wednesday night.thanks

    11 years ago