September 18, 2013

NRL Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.32 -5.68 17.00
Storm 9.31 9.73 -0.40
Sea Eagles 7.70 4.78 2.90
Rabbitohs 7.05 5.23 1.80
Cowboys 6.60 7.05 -0.40
Knights 6.36 0.44 5.90
Bulldogs 2.16 7.33 -5.20
Titans 2.11 -1.85 4.00
Sharks 1.89 -1.78 3.70
Warriors -0.89 -10.01 9.10
Panthers -2.57 -6.58 4.00
Broncos -5.15 -1.55 -3.60
Dragons -8.18 -0.33 -7.90
Raiders -10.23 2.03 -12.30
Wests Tigers -11.37 -3.71 -7.70
Eels -19.87 -8.82 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 13 20 – 10 0.30 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 14 20 – 18 -0.77 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Sep 14 4 – 0 3.52 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Sep 15 6 – 22 4.36 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 20 Sea Eagles 5.80
2 Storm vs. Knights Sep 21 Storm 7.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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