Super 15 Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons. Still the Crusaders have a high rating. Despite being tempted to arbitrarily change their rating, I have stuck with the formula. You may wish to downgrade them. The replacement of the Kings by the Lions provides another problem. In the past I have given a rating of -10 to an unknown team entering the competition, and this has seemed to provide reasonable predictions. The Lions do have a rating from when they were previously in the competition so I have used that rating. Again, you may wish to lower their rating.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Cheetahs vs. Lions||Feb 15||Cheetahs||9.60|
|2||Sharks vs. Bulls||Feb 15||Sharks||2.20|
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »