March 13, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

  Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.27 8.80 -2.50
Sharks 5.75 4.57 1.20
Chiefs 4.67 4.38 0.30
Brumbies 4.02 4.12 -0.10
Bulls 3.92 4.87 -1.00
Waratahs 3.82 1.67 2.20
Stormers 2.58 4.38 -1.80
Reds 0.49 0.58 -0.10
Cheetahs -1.68 0.12 -1.80
Blues -1.79 -1.92 0.10
Hurricanes -1.89 -1.44 -0.50
Highlanders -3.34 -4.48 1.10
Lions -4.26 -6.93 2.70
Force -5.16 -5.37 0.20
Rebels -6.40 -6.36 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

  Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Mar 07 21- 29 -1.00 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Cheetahs Mar 07 43 – 33 5.60 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Mar 08 14 – 13 8.70 TRUE
4 Force vs. Rebels Mar 08 32 – 7 0.9 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Blues Mar 08 38 – 22 8.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 08 37 – 23 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

  Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Stormers Mar 14 Chiefs 6.10
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders Mar 14 Crusaders -8.70
3 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs Mar 15 Hurricanes 3.80
4 Highlanders vs. Force Mar 15 Highlanders 5.80
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 Brumbies 2.70
6 Lions vs. Blues Mar 15 Lions 1.50
7 Sharks vs. Reds Mar 15 Sharks 7.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    T.A. McPherson

    Hi Mate,

    I’ve watched your predictions all through last year and this – why is it that your predicitions often differ from the other pick websites and sometimes even the TAB and yet are more often correct?

    I often have my own ides about who is going to win a game (for my picks) but if I se eyou’ve backed another team I’ll normally change.

    Thanks mate. Especially the Force pick last week, no one else had them!

    10 years ago

    • avatar

      I just apply a statistical method and have no idea of other people’s predictions. I don’t apply any subjective judgement to change my predictions. I do look at them and see how I feel about my predictions, but I don’t ever modify them.

      10 years ago

  • avatar
    Willem Van Rensburg

    Hi David. Congratulations on your 100% correct predictions for Round 4. It looks to me like you are giving a 4 point home ground advantage. How did you arrive at 4 points? Through trial and error? Regards. Willem

    10 years ago

    • avatar

      Almost right. I have different home ground advantage when both teams are from the same country.

      10 years ago