NRL Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 7.55 | 12.35 | -4.80 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.40 | 5.82 | 0.60 |
| Bulldogs | 6.24 | 2.46 | 3.80 |
| Sea Eagles | 5.95 | 9.10 | -3.10 |
| Cowboys | 2.89 | 6.01 | -3.10 |
| Knights | 2.86 | 5.23 | -2.40 |
| Storm | 2.24 | 7.64 | -5.40 |
| Titans | 0.26 | 1.45 | -1.20 |
| Broncos | -1.83 | -4.69 | 2.90 |
| Sharks | -2.75 | 2.32 | -5.10 |
| Panthers | -2.92 | -2.48 | -0.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.13 | -11.26 | 7.10 |
| Warriors | -4.40 | -0.72 | -3.70 |
| Raiders | -5.45 | -8.99 | 3.50 |
| Dragons | -5.47 | -7.57 | 2.10 |
| Eels | -9.20 | -18.45 | 9.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 11 | 2 – 18 | -2.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Titans vs. Broncos | Apr 11 | 12 – 8 | 7.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Knights | Apr 12 | 12 – 26 | -1.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Eels vs. Roosters | Apr 12 | 14 – 12 | -15.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | Apr 12 | 16 – 4 | -5.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Bulldogs | Apr 13 | 20 – 21 | -7.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Sharks | Apr 13 | 24 – 4 | 11.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Storm vs. Dragons | Apr 14 | 28 – 24 | 14.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Apr 18 | Rabbitohs | 4.70 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Broncos | Apr 18 | Knights | 9.20 |
| 3 | Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys | Apr 18 | Sea Eagles | 7.60 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Warriors | Apr 19 | Dragons | 3.40 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Roosters | Apr 19 | Roosters | -5.80 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Storm | Apr 20 | Storm | -3.20 |
| 7 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 21 | Wests Tigers | -0.60 |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Titans | Apr 21 | Panthers | 1.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »