Super 15 Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 7.52 | 4.57 | 3.00 |
| Crusaders | 7.20 | 8.80 | -1.60 |
| Chiefs | 4.10 | 4.38 | -0.30 |
| Brumbies | 4.06 | 4.12 | -0.10 |
| Waratahs | 3.18 | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Bulls | 2.88 | 4.87 | -2.00 |
| Stormers | 0.66 | 4.38 | -3.70 |
| Hurricanes | 0.51 | -1.44 | 1.90 |
| Reds | -0.84 | 0.58 | -1.40 |
| Blues | -1.33 | -1.92 | 0.60 |
| Force | -2.44 | -5.37 | 2.90 |
| Highlanders | -3.83 | -4.48 | 0.70 |
| Cheetahs | -4.29 | 0.12 | -4.40 |
| Rebels | -5.18 | -6.36 | 1.20 |
| Lions | -5.22 | -6.93 | 1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 55 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Bulls | Apr 11 | 27 – 20 | -4.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Brumbies | Apr 11 | 20 – 23 | -2.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Rebels | Apr 12 | 22 – 16 | 14.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Force vs. Waratahs | Apr 12 | 28 – 16 | -5.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Cheetahs vs. Crusaders | Apr 12 | 31 – 52 | -5.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Sharks | Apr 12 | 12 – 25 | -9.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Blues | Apr 18 | Hurricanes | 4.30 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Force | Apr 18 | Force | -0.20 |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Apr 19 | Crusaders | -0.60 |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Bulls | Apr 19 | Waratahs | 4.30 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Cheetahs | Apr 19 | Sharks | 14.30 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Lions | Apr 19 | Stormers | 8.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David. I noticed that this week your success rate so far in the competition is exactly the same as Dr Alan McCabe at mymait.com. What are the chances of that? Do you know if you are using the same method?
10 years ago
My method is totally different to his, so it is just luck that our success rates are the same. On the other hand any two strictly analytic methods which produce good predictions are likely to have similar success rates, so it is perhaps not surprising. I checked his website (which I didn’t know about) and his predictions this week are the same as mine for the games which aren’t close by my calculations, but differ from mine in the two close games where I estimate the difference as being less than one point.
10 years ago