Super 15 Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 8.68 | 8.80 | -0.10 |
| Waratahs | 5.97 | 1.67 | 4.30 |
| Sharks | 5.65 | 4.57 | 1.10 |
| Brumbies | 3.64 | 4.12 | -0.50 |
| Hurricanes | 2.74 | -1.44 | 4.20 |
| Bulls | 2.62 | 4.87 | -2.30 |
| Stormers | 1.98 | 4.38 | -2.40 |
| Chiefs | 1.44 | 4.38 | -2.90 |
| Blues | 0.21 | -1.92 | 2.10 |
| Highlanders | -1.69 | -4.48 | 2.80 |
| Force | -2.85 | -5.37 | 2.50 |
| Reds | -4.13 | 0.58 | -4.70 |
| Cheetahs | -4.52 | 0.12 | -4.60 |
| Lions | -6.02 | -6.93 | 0.90 |
| Rebels | -6.73 | -6.36 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 101 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Force | May 30 | 30 – 7 | 14.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Highlanders | May 30 | 38 – 31 | 0.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Waratahs | May 31 | 17 – 33 | 1.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Blues vs. Hurricanes | May 31 | 37 – 24 | -1.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Rebels | May 31 | 37 – 10 | 10.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Bulls | May 31 | 32 – 21 | -8.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Stormers | May 31 | 19 – 21 | 7.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | Jun 27 | Chiefs | -0.60 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Reds | Jun 27 | Reds | -0.10 |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Crusaders | Jun 28 | Crusaders | -3.40 |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Jun 28 | Waratahs | 4.80 |
| 5 | Force vs. Blues | Jun 28 | Force | 0.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Dear David,
Will you please do predictions for this years Currie cup ?
Willis
10 years ago
I am intending to. I see it is coming up rapidly. I have past data now so that is not a problem. I do have to do some parameter choice investigation.
10 years ago
Thank you, if you need any info let me know
Regards
10 years ago