August 6, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 22

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 9.79 5.82 4.00
Sea Eagles 9.07 9.10 -0.00
Warriors 6.94 -0.72 7.70
Roosters 6.48 12.35 -5.90
Cowboys 5.45 6.01 -0.60
Storm 4.45 7.64 -3.20
Broncos 0.92 -4.69 5.60
Panthers 0.91 -2.48 3.40
Bulldogs -1.70 2.46 -4.20
Dragons -1.84 -7.57 5.70
Knights -3.61 5.23 -8.80
Titans -5.63 1.45 -7.10
Eels -6.41 -18.45 12.00
Wests Tigers -8.33 -11.26 2.90
Raiders -8.79 -8.99 0.20
Sharks -9.50 2.32 -11.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 01 16 – 4 12.90 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 01 16 – 22 3.80 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Eels Aug 02 12 – 32 5.90 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Aug 02 28 – 8 14.50 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 02 30 – 22 14.00 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Warriors Aug 03 18 – 54 -6.10 TRUE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 03 50 – 10 13.30 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Aug 04 6 – 28 -5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 08 Rabbitohs 5.20
2 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 08 Broncos 7.10
3 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 09 Cowboys 18.30
4 Knights vs. Storm Aug 09 Storm -3.60
5 Eels vs. Raiders Aug 09 Eels 6.90
6 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 10 Warriors 20.90
7 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 10 Dragons 1.80
8 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 11 Roosters 16.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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