NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1
Team Ratings for Finals Week 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 11.41 | 12.35 | -0.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 10.49 | 5.82 | 4.70 |
| Cowboys | 8.66 | 6.01 | 2.60 |
| Storm | 7.40 | 7.64 | -0.20 |
| Broncos | 4.18 | -4.69 | 8.90 |
| Sea Eagles | 4.15 | 9.10 | -4.90 |
| Panthers | 3.18 | -2.48 | 5.70 |
| Warriors | 2.82 | -0.72 | 3.50 |
| Knights | -0.28 | 5.23 | -5.50 |
| Dragons | -2.10 | -7.57 | 5.50 |
| Bulldogs | -2.95 | 2.46 | -5.40 |
| Raiders | -7.64 | -8.99 | 1.40 |
| Eels | -8.12 | -18.45 | 10.30 |
| Titans | -8.40 | 1.45 | -9.90 |
| Sharks | -10.92 | 2.32 | -13.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -13.68 | -11.26 | -2.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 192 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Rabbitohs | Sep 04 | 22 – 18 | 5.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Storm vs. Broncos | Sep 05 | 22 – 12 | 7.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Sharks | Sep 06 | 26 – 10 | -1.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Eels | Sep 06 | 33 – 20 | 3.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles | Sep 06 | 30 – 16 | 7.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Knights vs. Dragons | Sep 07 | 40 – 10 | 1.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Titans vs. Bulldogs | Sep 07 | 19 – 18 | -1.50 | FALSE |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Warriors | Sep 08 | 22 – 6 | 2.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Finals Week 1
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs | Sep 12 | Rabbitohs | -1.80 |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Panthers | Sep 13 | Roosters | 12.70 |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Sep 13 | Cowboys | 9.00 |
| 4 | Storm vs. Bulldogs | Sep 14 | Storm | 14.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »