Revised ITM Cup Predictions for Round 7
Reviewing the ratings I noticed I have been giving Wellington a ridiculously high rating given their disastrous performance this year. I discovered a problem with my code which meant I have not been updating ratings properly. I have some different code for the ITM Cup because of the strange nature of the fixtures where teams can play more than one game a week.
Team Ratings for Round 7
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 21.23 | 18.09 | 3.10 |
| Tasman | 10.08 | 5.78 | 4.30 |
| Auckland | 5.32 | 4.92 | 0.40 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.02 | 2.75 | 1.30 |
| Taranaki | 2.96 | -3.89 | 6.90 |
| Wellington | 1.25 | 10.16 | -8.90 |
| Counties Manukau | 0.04 | 2.40 | -2.40 |
| Otago | -1.62 | -1.45 | -0.20 |
| Waikato | -3.89 | -1.20 | -2.70 |
| Northland | -5.24 | -8.22 | 3.00 |
| Manawatu | -7.06 | -10.32 | 3.30 |
| Southland | -9.05 | -5.85 | -3.20 |
| Bay of Plenty | -9.73 | -5.47 | -4.30 |
| North Harbour | -10.37 | -9.77 | -0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 46 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland vs. Tasman | Sep 17 | 14 – 38 | -13.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Northland vs. Taranaki | Sep 18 | 20 – 31 | -1.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury | Sep 19 | 20 – 28 | -13.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 20 | 36 – 17 | 10.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Auckland vs. North Harbour | Sep 20 | 32 – 7 | 18.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Manawatu vs. Southland | Sep 20 | 41 – 20 | -0.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Otago vs. Waikato | Sep 21 | 38 – 7 | 1.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wellington vs. Tasman | Sep 21 | 20 – 42 | 0.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Harbour vs. Canterbury | Sep 24 | Canterbury | -27.60 |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Northland | Sep 25 | Northland | -0.50 |
| 3 | Taranaki vs. Auckland | Sep 26 | Taranaki | 1.60 |
| 4 | Waikato vs. Manawatu | Sep 27 | Waikato | 7.20 |
| 5 | Counties Manukau vs. Wellington | Sep 27 | Counties Manukau | 2.80 |
| 6 | North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 27 | Hawke’s Bay | -10.40 |
| 7 | Tasman vs. Otago | Sep 28 | Tasman | 15.70 |
| 8 | Canterbury vs. Southland | Sep 28 | Canterbury | 34.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »