March 18, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 14.80 13.06 1.70
Roosters 10.85 9.09 1.80
Cowboys 6.80 9.52 -2.70
Panthers 5.32 3.69 1.60
Storm 4.46 4.36 0.10
Warriors 2.89 3.07 -0.20
Broncos 2.21 4.03 -1.80
Knights 1.26 -0.28 1.50
Bulldogs 1.10 0.21 0.90
Sea Eagles 0.48 2.68 -2.20
Dragons -3.83 -1.74 -2.10
Eels -5.58 -7.19 1.60
Raiders -7.33 -7.09 -0.20
Titans -10.51 -8.20 -2.30
Wests Tigers -10.76 -13.13 2.40
Sharks -10.82 -10.76 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Eels Mar 13 32 – 12 8.00 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Broncos Mar 13 2 – 10 -10.40 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Knights Mar 14 14 – 16 10.30 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Titans Mar 14 40 – 0 15.50 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Mar 14 24 – 22 -1.50 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 15 34 – 26 6.70 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 15 6 – 18 -5.20 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Mar 16 22 – 4 -7.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 20 Cowboys -1.60
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 20 Sea Eagles 2.40
3 Raiders vs. Dragons Mar 21 Dragons -0.50
4 Storm vs. Sharks Mar 21 Storm 18.30
5 Warriors vs. Eels Mar 21 Warriors 12.50
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 Rabbitohs 28.60
7 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 Knights -8.80
8 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 23 Roosters 8.50

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »