April 29, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 7.59 9.09 -1.50
Cowboys 7.39 9.52 -2.10
Rabbitohs 6.39 13.06 -6.70
Broncos 4.48 4.03 0.40
Storm 4.19 4.36 -0.20
Dragons 1.27 -1.74 3.00
Warriors 0.70 3.07 -2.40
Panthers 0.64 3.69 -3.10
Knights -1.91 -0.28 -1.60
Sea Eagles -1.94 2.68 -4.60
Bulldogs -2.06 0.21 -2.30
Raiders -3.64 -7.09 3.40
Titans -4.31 -8.20 3.90
Wests Tigers -5.64 -13.13 7.50
Sharks -5.72 -10.76 5.00
Eels -6.09 -7.19 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 24 14 – 38 11.30 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Eels Apr 25 28 – 16 13.90 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Cowboys Apr 25 24 – 26 -7.00 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 12 – 14 11.20 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 10 – 12 11.00 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 25 28 – 32 11.10 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Sharks Apr 26 26 – 18 9.60 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 26 22 – 30 16.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers May 08 Broncos 6.80
2 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 08 Roosters 16.20
3 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs May 09 Cowboys 12.40
4 Raiders vs. Titans May 09 Raiders 3.70
5 Sharks vs. Warriors May 09 Warriors -2.40
6 Eels vs. Storm May 10 Storm -7.30
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights May 10 Sea Eagles 3.00
8 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 11 Rabbitohs 8.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »