May 28, 2015

Junk food science

In an interesting sting on the world of science journalism, John Bohannon and two colleagues, plus a German medical doctor, ran a small randomised experiment on the effects of chocolate consumption, and found better weight loss in those given chocolate. The experiment was real and the measurements were real, but the medical journal  was the sort that published their paper two weeks after submission, with no changes.

Here’s a dirty little science secret: If you measure a large number of things about a small number of people, you are almost guaranteed to get a “statistically significant” result. Our study included 18 different measurements—weight, cholesterol, sodium, blood protein levels, sleep quality, well-being, etc.—from 15 people. (One subject was dropped.) That study design is a recipe for false positives.

Think of the measurements as lottery tickets. Each one has a small chance of paying off in the form of a “significant” result that we can spin a story around and sell to the media. The more tickets you buy, the more likely you are to win. We didn’t know exactly what would pan out—the headline could have been that chocolate improves sleep or lowers blood pressure—but we knew our chances of getting at least one “statistically significant” result were pretty good.

Bohannon and his conspirators were doing this deliberately, but lots of people do it accidentally. Their study was (deliberately) crappier than average, but since the journalists didn’t ask, that didn’t matter. You should go read the whole thing.

Finally, two answers for obvious concerns: first, the participants were told the research was for a documentary on dieting, not that it was in any sense real scientific research. Second: no, neither Stuff nor the Herald fell for it.

 [Update: Although there was participant consent, there wasn’t ethics committee review. An ethics committee probably wouldn’t have allowed it. Hilda Bastian on Twitter]

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »

Comments

  • avatar

    I’ve seen some people on Twitter (who know more about this than I do) expressing what sound to me like legitimate concerns about the ethics surrounding this. Partly about misleading study participants (I’m not sure if the trial had any ethical approval or oversight?) and partly around its effect on the public’s trust in science and scientists.

    I hope the net result will be an improvement in journalistic standards, which will in turn result in improved science literacy in general and less misleading “diet science” news items. But even if that does happen, it wouldn’t erase ethical concerns about the means to reach that end.

    2 years ago

    • avatar

      Oh, I just noticed your update about ethics as well. Sorry, I missed that when writing my earlier comment.

      2 years ago

  • avatar
    Andy Lange

    As usual, there’s an xkcd for that:

    https://xkcd.com/882/

    2 years ago