June 3, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.22 9.09 1.10
Cowboys 6.53 9.52 -3.00
Broncos 5.13 4.03 1.10
Rabbitohs 4.84 13.06 -8.20
Storm 4.08 4.36 -0.30
Dragons 3.76 -1.74 5.50
Warriors 0.60 3.07 -2.50
Panthers -0.10 3.69 -3.80
Bulldogs -1.41 0.21 -1.60
Sea Eagles -1.51 2.68 -4.20
Knights -2.17 -0.28 -1.90
Raiders -3.12 -7.09 4.00
Eels -4.80 -7.19 2.40
Wests Tigers -6.65 -13.13 6.50
Titans -6.74 -8.20 1.50
Sharks -7.34 -10.76 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Eels May 29 20 – 26 9.90 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles May 30 18 – 14 12.20 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Broncos May 30 12 – 24 -4.10 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs May 30 16 – 22 -9.00 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Sharks May 31 42 – 6 10.70 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Knights May 31 24 – 20 7.30 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 01 24 – 2 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Jun 05 Broncos 9.60
2 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 05 Wests Tigers 3.10
3 Knights vs. Raiders Jun 06 Knights 3.90
4 Panthers vs. Storm Jun 06 Storm -1.20
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 06 Rabbitohs 8.20
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Jun 07 Roosters -14.60
7 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 08 Dragons -2.20
8 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 08 Cowboys -8.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »