June 3, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.06 10.42 -1.40
Waratahs 6.16 10.00 -3.80
Hurricanes 6.07 2.89 3.20
Highlanders 5.12 -2.54 7.70
Brumbies 4.12 2.20 1.90
Chiefs 3.60 2.23 1.40
Stormers 3.59 1.68 1.90
Bulls 2.26 2.88 -0.60
Lions -1.12 -3.39 2.30
Blues -1.68 1.44 -3.10
Sharks -1.94 3.91 -5.90
Rebels -4.58 -9.53 4.90
Reds -7.37 -4.98 -2.40
Force -7.38 -4.67 -2.70
Cheetahs -8.92 -5.55 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 29 35 – 18 5.60 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 29 22 – 16 6.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Rebels May 29 25 – 21 7.80 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 30 36 – 9 2.80 TRUE
5 Force vs. Reds May 30 10 – 32 7.20 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 30 42 – 12 14.70 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Waratahs May 30 27 – 22 -3.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jun 05 Hurricanes 4.90
2 Force vs. Brumbies Jun 05 Brumbies -7.50
3 Rebels vs. Bulls Jun 06 Bulls -2.30
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Jun 06 Crusaders -6.70
5 Reds vs. Chiefs Jun 06 Chiefs -6.50
6 Cheetahs vs. Waratahs Jun 06 Waratahs -10.60
7 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 06 Stormers 8.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »