NRL Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 8.82 | 9.09 | -0.30 |
| Broncos | 6.98 | 4.03 | 2.90 |
| Cowboys | 6.07 | 9.52 | -3.50 |
| Storm | 4.02 | 4.36 | -0.30 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.88 | 13.06 | -9.20 |
| Dragons | 2.55 | -1.74 | 4.30 |
| Warriors | 0.63 | 3.07 | -2.40 |
| Bulldogs | -0.85 | 0.21 | -1.10 |
| Raiders | -1.08 | -7.09 | 6.00 |
| Panthers | -2.05 | 3.69 | -5.70 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.78 | 2.68 | -5.50 |
| Eels | -3.44 | -7.19 | 3.70 |
| Knights | -4.44 | -0.28 | -4.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.18 | -13.13 | 7.90 |
| Sharks | -5.42 | -10.76 | 5.30 |
| Titans | -6.37 | -8.20 | 1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 110 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 19 | 30 – 20 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Jun 20 | 24 – 12 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Cowboys | Jun 20 | 20 – 21 | -4.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Warriors | Jun 20 | 14 – 36 | 0.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Knights vs. Sharks | Jun 21 | 28 – 30 | 5.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Broncos | Jun 21 | 12 – 14 | 0.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Jun 22 | 14 – 19 | -3.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Knights | Jun 26 | Broncos | 14.40 |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 26 | Rabbitohs | 9.70 |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Jun 27 | Cowboys | 14.50 |
| 4 | Eels vs. Dragons | Jun 27 | Dragons | -3.00 |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Jun 27 | Warriors | 5.70 |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Titans | Jun 28 | Roosters | 18.20 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | Jun 28 | Panthers | -0.10 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Storm | Jun 29 | Storm | -1.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »