ITM Cup Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 12.47 | 12.86 | -0.40 |
| Canterbury | 11.16 | 10.90 | 0.30 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 5.63 | -0.57 | 6.20 |
| Auckland | 4.43 | 5.14 | -0.70 |
| Counties Manukau | 4.14 | 7.86 | -3.70 |
| Taranaki | 3.43 | 7.70 | -4.30 |
| Wellington | 2.36 | -4.62 | 7.00 |
| Manawatu | -2.13 | -1.52 | -0.60 |
| Waikato | -2.17 | -6.96 | 4.80 |
| Otago | -4.30 | -4.84 | 0.50 |
| Southland | -6.95 | -6.01 | -0.90 |
| Northland | -8.33 | -3.64 | -4.70 |
| Bay of Plenty | -10.56 | -9.77 | -0.80 |
| North Harbour | -13.18 | -10.54 | -2.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bay of Plenty vs. Southland | Aug 26 | 26 – 10 | -0.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Tasman vs. Manawatu | Aug 27 | 41 – 21 | 18.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 28 | 11 – 35 | 8.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Auckland vs. Canterbury | Aug 29 | 21 – 27 | -2.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Taranaki vs. Otago | Aug 29 | 27 – 34 | 15.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Wellington vs. Northland | Aug 29 | 29 – 0 | 11.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato | Aug 30 | 10 – 43 | 0.40 | FALSE |
| 8 | Southland vs. North Harbour | Aug 30 | 25 – 26 | 14.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 02 | Taranaki | 3.30 |
| 2 | Manawatu vs. Canterbury | Sep 03 | Canterbury | -9.30 |
| 3 | Otago vs. Tasman | Sep 04 | Tasman | -12.80 |
| 4 | Waikato vs. Auckland | Sep 05 | Auckland | -2.60 |
| 5 | Southland vs. Wellington | Sep 05 | Wellington | -5.30 |
| 6 | Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour | Sep 05 | Hawke’s Bay | 22.80 |
| 7 | Northland vs. Taranaki | Sep 06 | Taranaki | -7.80 |
| 8 | Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 06 | Counties Manukau | 18.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »