September 2, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.92 9.09 2.80
Broncos 10.03 4.03 6.00
Cowboys 6.63 9.52 -2.90
Storm 4.13 4.36 -0.20
Bulldogs 3.68 0.21 3.50
Rabbitohs 1.96 13.06 -11.10
Sea Eagles 0.13 2.68 -2.50
Dragons 0.00 -1.74 1.70
Sharks -0.38 -10.76 10.40
Raiders -1.40 -7.09 5.70
Panthers -3.79 3.69 -7.50
Knights -4.46 -0.28 -4.20
Eels -4.80 -7.19 2.40
Wests Tigers -5.65 -13.13 7.50
Warriors -8.32 3.07 -11.40
Titans -8.35 -8.20 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 27 12 – 47 -0.40 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 28 10 – 46 -4.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 29 28 – 35 -0.50 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 18 – 20 -5.70 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Cowboys Aug 29 14 – 6 -0.80 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 30 50 – 16 2.40 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Dragons Aug 30 28 – 26 -6.60 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 31 34 – 18 3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 03 Broncos 8.90
2 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 04 Roosters 13.00
3 Panthers vs. Knights Sep 05 Panthers 3.70
4 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 Dragons 8.60
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 05 Cowboys 18.00
6 Eels vs. Raiders Sep 06 Raiders -0.40
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 Sharks 2.50
8 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Sep 06 Bulldogs 16.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »