Rugby World Cup Predictions for Week 2
Team Ratings for Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.
| Current Rating | Rating at RWC Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 28.37 | 29.01 | -0.60 |
| South Africa | 21.15 | 22.73 | -1.60 |
| Australia | 20.36 | 20.36 | 0.00 |
| Ireland | 18.15 | 17.48 | 0.70 |
| England | 18.04 | 18.51 | -0.50 |
| Wales | 13.35 | 13.93 | -0.60 |
| France | 12.10 | 11.70 | 0.40 |
| Argentina | 8.02 | 7.38 | 0.60 |
| Scotland | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.00 |
| Samoa | -2.71 | -2.28 | -0.40 |
| Fiji | -3.76 | -4.23 | 0.50 |
| Italy | -6.26 | -5.86 | -0.40 |
| Tonga | -7.23 | -6.31 | -0.90 |
| Japan | -9.60 | -11.18 | 1.60 |
| USA | -15.54 | -15.97 | 0.40 |
| Georgia | -16.56 | -17.48 | 0.90 |
| Canada | -18.73 | -18.06 | -0.70 |
| Romania | -21.20 | -21.20 | -0.00 |
| Uruguay | -30.46 | -31.04 | 0.60 |
| Namibia | -35.62 | -35.62 | -0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England vs. Fiji | Sep 18 | 35 – 11 | 29.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Tonga vs. Georgia | Sep 19 | 10 – 17 | 11.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Ireland vs. Canada | Sep 19 | 50 – 7 | 35.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | South Africa vs. Japan | Sep 19 | 32 – 34 | 33.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | France vs. Italy | Sep 19 | 32 – 10 | 17.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Samoa vs. USA | Sep 20 | 25 – 16 | 13.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Wales vs. Uruguay | Sep 20 | 54 – 9 | 51.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | New Zealand vs. Argentina | Sep 20 | 26 – 16 | 21.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 2
Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scotland vs. Japan | Sep 23 | Scotland | 14.40 |
| 2 | Australia vs. Fiji | Sep 23 | Australia | 24.10 |
| 3 | France vs. Romania | Sep 23 | France | 33.30 |
| 4 | New Zealand vs. Namibia | Sep 24 | New Zealand | 64.00 |
| 5 | Argentina vs. Georgia | Sep 25 | Argentina | 24.60 |
| 6 | Italy vs. Canada | Sep 26 | Italy | 12.50 |
| 7 | South Africa vs. Samoa | Sep 26 | South Africa | 23.90 |
| 8 | England vs. Wales | Sep 26 | England | 11.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
David
To clarify these weren’t the predictions for week 1. For example Samoa v USA was 20.20.
Please can you explain why the above predictions considerably differ?
Thanks
9 years ago
I messed up the specification of neutral venues. I mentioned the mistake already in comments. Margins were all out by the home ground advantage. Luckily there were no close games where the difference affected my winner predictions. Thinking about this later, it wasn’t all luck. The margins were so large that I never questioned them when I looked over my predictions. When I made the prediction for England-Wales I looked a bit more closely and found the mistake.
9 years ago
Hi David
Do you have predictions for the games on Sunday 27th and Tuesday 29th.
Also how do you calibrate the model based on the actual score and predicted score difference?
Regards, Niven.
9 years ago
Predictions are there for the weekend games. I will give the next lot of predictions after the England-Wales game and before Australia-Uruguay. That is a pretty tight schedule for people to get them and a little tricky for me because I might not have good internet access.
9 years ago
Hello, I don’t know how to “read” and determine a correct score with your predictions.
Could you explain me by giving an example , please?
thank you very much
9 years ago
New Zealand versus Namibia, I expected New Zealand to win by 64 points (prediction 64), because they were the first-named team in the match. If the prediction was negative I would be expecting the second-named team to win. If there is any home ground advantage the team with the advantage is always the first-named team, for example England in the game England vs. Wales.
9 years ago
Hi David
What is your take on Namibia vs Tonga, taking into consideration that most of Namibias players are actual working guys like 9 to 5’ers with a couple of proffesionals added.
9 years ago
None of those team aspects affect my predictions. Just look at the ratings, Tonga by about 27. No home ground advantage for that game.
9 years ago
Hello, will you add predictions for week 3 soon ?
9 years ago