ITM Cup Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taranaki | 10.96 | 7.70 | 3.30 |
| Canterbury | 10.82 | 10.90 | -0.10 |
| Tasman | 10.14 | 12.86 | -2.70 |
| Auckland | 6.95 | 5.14 | 1.80 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.24 | -0.57 | 4.80 |
| Wellington | 3.91 | -4.62 | 8.50 |
| Counties Manukau | 2.45 | 7.86 | -5.40 |
| Otago | 1.46 | -4.84 | 6.30 |
| Waikato | -4.82 | -6.96 | 2.10 |
| Bay of Plenty | -5.27 | -9.77 | 4.50 |
| Manawatu | -7.01 | -1.52 | -5.50 |
| North Harbour | -9.60 | -10.54 | 0.90 |
| Southland | -11.20 | -6.01 | -5.20 |
| Northland | -17.01 | -3.64 | -13.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury vs. Waikato | Sep 23 | 18 – 17 | 24.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland | Sep 24 | 17 – 12 | 0.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Northland vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 25 | 5 – 37 | -2.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Counties Manukau vs. Tasman | Sep 26 | 42 – 33 | -6.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Otago vs. Southland | Sep 26 | 61 – 7 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Manawatu vs. North Harbour | Sep 26 | 31 – 17 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Waikato vs. Wellington | Sep 27 | 14 – 21 | -6.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Canterbury vs. Taranaki | Sep 27 | 21 – 24 | 7.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 30 | Wellington | 3.70 |
| 2 | North Harbour vs. Otago | Oct 01 | Otago | -7.10 |
| 3 | Waikato vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 02 | Counties Manukau | -3.30 |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Canterbury | Oct 03 | Tasman | 3.30 |
| 5 | Manawatu vs. Taranaki | Oct 03 | Taranaki | -14.00 |
| 6 | Auckland vs. Northland | Oct 03 | Auckland | 28.00 |
| 7 | Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 04 | Hawke’s Bay | -11.40 |
| 8 | Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington | Oct 04 | Wellington | -5.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »