October 4, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions, 04 October 2015 to 07 October 2015

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Team Ratings at 04 October

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to 04 October along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Rating at 04 October Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 26.72 29.01 -2.30
South Africa 22.16 22.73 -0.60
Australia 21.59 20.36 1.20
Ireland 17.72 17.48 0.20
England 16.17 18.51 -2.30
Wales 13.37 13.93 -0.60
France 10.94 11.70 -0.80
Argentina 9.03 7.38 1.60
Scotland 5.82 4.84 1.00
Fiji -2.49 -4.23 1.70
Samoa -4.83 -2.28 -2.50
Italy -6.93 -5.86 -1.10
Tonga -7.94 -6.31 -1.60
Japan -9.31 -11.18 1.90
USA -15.69 -15.97 0.30
Georgia -16.91 -17.48 0.60
Canada -17.46 -18.06 0.60
Romania -20.20 -21.20 1.00
Uruguay -31.10 -31.04 -0.10
Namibia -33.91 -35.62 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 26 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80.8%.
Here are the predictions for previous games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. Fiji Sep 18 35 – 11 29.20 TRUE
2 Tonga vs. Georgia Sep 19 10 – 17 11.20 FALSE
3 Ireland vs. Canada Sep 19 50 – 7 35.50 TRUE
4 South Africa vs. Japan Sep 19 32 – 34 33.90 FALSE
5 France vs. Italy Sep 19 32 – 10 17.60 TRUE
6 Samoa vs. USA Sep 20 25 – 16 13.70 TRUE
7 Wales vs. Uruguay Sep 20 54 – 9 51.50 TRUE
8 New Zealand vs. Argentina Sep 20 26 – 16 21.60 TRUE
9 Scotland vs. Japan Sep 23 45 – 10 14.40 TRUE
10 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 23 28 – 13 24.10 TRUE
11 France vs. Romania Sep 23 38 – 11 33.30 TRUE
12 New Zealand vs. Namibia Sep 24 58 – 14 64.00 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Georgia Sep 25 54 – 9 24.60 TRUE
14 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 23 – 18 12.50 TRUE
15 South Africa vs. Samoa Sep 26 46 – 6 23.90 TRUE
16 England vs. Wales Sep 26 25 – 28 11.20 FALSE
17 Australia vs. Uruguay Sep 27 65 – 3 50.30 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. USA Sep 27 39 – 16 21.40 TRUE
19 Ireland vs. Romania Sep 27 44 – 10 38.80 TRUE
20 Tonga vs. Namibia Sep 29 35 – 21 27.40 TRUE
21 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 01 23 – 13 23.80 TRUE
22 France vs. Canada Oct 01 41 – 18 29.60 TRUE
23 New Zealand vs. Georgia Oct 02 43 – 10 44.90 TRUE
24 Samoa vs. Japan Oct 03 5 – 26 7.10 FALSE
25 South Africa vs. Scotland Oct 03 34 – 16 16.00 TRUE
26 England vs. Australia Oct 03 13 – 33 3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for 04 October to 07 October

The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Argentina vs. Tonga Oct 04 Argentina 17.00
2 Ireland vs. Italy Oct 04 Ireland 24.70
3 Canada vs. Romania Oct 06 Canada 2.70
4 Fiji vs. Uruguay Oct 06 Fiji 28.60
5 South Africa vs. USA Oct 07 South Africa 37.90
6 Namibia vs. Georgia Oct 07 Georgia -17.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Guy Hallwright

    Hi Prof Scott
    As far as I can tell you appear to be using a home ground advantage factor of about 6.5 points. Is that an average of the super 15 historic factor of around 10 and the factor reported by UK bookies of around 3 for the Northern hemisphere? or did you estimate it from past RWCs &/or tests? Love the work.

    9 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Yes, that is my home ground advantage for these games. It is much higher than I use for Super Rugby, Rugby League ITM Cup and Currie Cup typically though I did use a similar value once for Currie Cup. It is based on analysis of past tests from 1995 to the present. I have no knowledge of what bookies use, but 10 would be suitable for the difference between home and away for Super Rugby, that is a difference of 5 for home ground versus playing on neutral ground. I use less than that for games in the same country. 3 seems much too small a home ground advantage for test matches.

      9 years ago