April 13, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.12 9.84 -1.70
Chiefs 6.51 2.68 3.80
Highlanders 6.25 6.80 -0.50
Hurricanes 5.62 7.26 -1.60
Brumbies 3.47 3.15 0.30
Waratahs 2.30 4.88 -2.60
Stormers 2.02 -0.62 2.60
Lions 0.42 -1.80 2.20
Bulls -0.72 -0.74 0.00
Sharks -1.06 -1.64 0.60
Blues -4.16 -5.51 1.30
Rebels -5.31 -6.33 1.00
Jaguares -8.67 -10.00 1.30
Reds -9.17 -9.81 0.60
Cheetahs -9.21 -9.27 0.10
Force -9.31 -8.43 -0.90
Sunwolves -12.98 -10.00 -3.00
Kings -17.37 -13.66 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 08 29 – 23 15.30 TRUE
2 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 08 19 – 20 -15.10 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Apr 08 46 – 19 17.90 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares Apr 09 40 – 22 18.30 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 09 28 – 27 -13.10 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Lions Apr 09 9 – 24 4.30 FALSE
7 Kings vs. Bulls Apr 09 6 – 38 -10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Jaguares Apr 15 Crusaders 20.80
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Apr 15 Hurricanes -6.90
3 Cheetahs vs. Sunwolves Apr 15 Cheetahs 7.80
4 Blues vs. Sharks Apr 16 Blues 0.90
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Apr 16 Waratahs 2.30
6 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 16 Bulls 12.40
7 Lions vs. Stormers Apr 16 Lions 1.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »