May 4, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.46 9.84 -0.40
Hurricanes 8.37 7.26 1.10
Chiefs 6.23 2.68 3.60
Highlanders 5.85 6.80 -0.90
Waratahs 3.77 4.88 -1.10
Brumbies 2.05 3.15 -1.10
Stormers 1.62 -0.62 2.20
Bulls 0.59 -0.74 1.30
Sharks 0.00 -1.64 1.60
Lions 0.00 -1.80 1.80
Blues -3.88 -5.51 1.60
Rebels -5.29 -6.33 1.00
Cheetahs -7.07 -9.27 2.20
Jaguares -7.24 -10.00 2.80
Reds -8.98 -9.81 0.80
Force -11.93 -8.43 -3.50
Sunwolves -16.26 -10.00 -6.30
Kings -20.55 -13.66 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Sharks Apr 29 24 – 22 11.40 TRUE
2 Force vs. Bulls Apr 29 20 – 42 -6.70 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 30 23 – 10 7.10 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Rebels Apr 30 36 – 30 5.30 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Cheetahs Apr 30 30 – 17 0.60 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Hurricanes Apr 30 17 – 50 -0.50 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Waratahs Apr 30 30 – 32 2.40 FALSE
8 Jaguares vs. Kings Apr 30 73 – 27 13.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds May 06 Crusaders 22.40
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 06 Brumbies 5.50
3 Sunwolves vs. Force May 07 Force -0.30
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders May 07 Chiefs 3.90
5 Waratahs vs. Cheetahs May 07 Waratahs 14.80
6 Sharks vs. Hurricanes May 07 Hurricanes -4.40
7 Kings vs. Blues May 07 Blues -12.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »