June 1, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 10.74 10.29 0.40
Broncos 10.55 9.81 0.70
Storm 7.33 4.41 2.90
Sharks 6.19 -1.06 7.20
Bulldogs 2.20 1.50 0.70
Raiders 1.89 -0.55 2.40
Roosters 1.29 11.20 -9.90
Rabbitohs -0.34 -1.20 0.90
Panthers -0.43 -3.06 2.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 0.36 -0.80
Eels -0.56 -4.62 4.10
Dragons -2.63 -0.10 -2.50
Titans -4.16 -8.39 4.20
Wests Tigers -7.23 -4.06 -3.20
Warriors -7.72 -7.47 -0.30
Knights -14.97 -5.41 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers May 27 18 – 19 24.20 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys May 28 14 – 10 -12.70 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 29 32 – 20 1.10 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Eels May 30 18 – 20 -13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Jun 03 Raiders 5.40
2 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 04 Broncos -14.30
3 Cowboys vs. Knights Jun 04 Cowboys 28.70
4 Storm vs. Panthers Jun 04 Storm 10.80
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 05 Roosters 11.50
6 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 05 Rabbitohs 3.80
7 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 06 Sharks -1.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »