June 27, 2016

Briefly

  • In Brexit, the YouGov estimate that I mentioned last week was pretty accurate, but the result genuinely was too close to call.  The real-time forecasts from Chris Hanretty at the University of East Anglia seemed to work well.
  • If you combine turnout estimates with voting estimates by age group, the proportion of 18-24 year olds voting Remain (75% of the 36% turnout) was less than the proportion of 65+ year olds (39% of the 83% turnout).  Turnout matters.
  • You’re much more likely to survive a cardiac arrest on TV than in real life.
  • What theoretical physicists (statisticians, etc,) look like when working (Dr Katie Mack, astrophysics/cosmology). No lab coats; no brighly coloured Erlenmeyer flasks.
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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »