Super 18 Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 8.89 | 9.84 | -0.90 |
| Highlanders | 7.43 | 6.80 | 0.60 |
| Hurricanes | 6.67 | 7.26 | -0.60 |
| Waratahs | 6.65 | 4.88 | 1.80 |
| Lions | 6.17 | -1.80 | 8.00 |
| Chiefs | 5.46 | 2.68 | 2.80 |
| Brumbies | 5.27 | 3.15 | 2.10 |
| Stormers | 1.74 | -0.62 | 2.40 |
| Sharks | 1.57 | -1.64 | 3.20 |
| Bulls | -4.23 | -0.74 | -3.50 |
| Blues | -4.59 | -5.51 | 0.90 |
| Cheetahs | -7.42 | -9.27 | 1.90 |
| Rebels | -7.50 | -6.33 | -1.20 |
| Jaguares | -7.88 | -10.00 | 2.10 |
| Reds | -9.40 | -9.81 | 0.40 |
| Force | -10.40 | -8.43 | -2.00 |
| Sunwolves | -20.13 | -10.00 | -10.10 |
| Kings | -21.54 | -13.66 | -7.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 117 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Jul 01 | 23 – 13 | -5.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Reds | Jul 01 | 43 – 24 | 18.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sunwolves vs. Waratahs | Jul 02 | 12 – 57 | -19.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hurricanes vs. Blues | Jul 02 | 37 – 27 | 15.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rebels vs. Stormers | Jul 02 | 31 – 57 | -2.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Force | Jul 02 | 30 – 29 | 7.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Kings vs. Highlanders | Jul 02 | 18 – 48 | -24.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Lions vs. Sharks | Jul 02 | 37 – 10 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 9 | Jaguares vs. Bulls | Jul 02 | 29 – 11 | -2.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Brumbies | Jul 08 | Brumbies | -5.90 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Chiefs | Jul 08 | Chiefs | -10.90 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Kings | Jul 08 | Lions | 31.20 |
| 4 | Crusaders vs. Rebels | Jul 09 | Crusaders | 20.40 |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Hurricanes | Jul 09 | Waratahs | 4.00 |
| 6 | Force vs. Stormers | Jul 09 | Stormers | -8.10 |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Sunwolves | Jul 09 | Bulls | 19.90 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Cheetahs | Jul 09 | Sharks | 12.50 |
| 9 | Jaguares vs. Highlanders | Jul 09 | Highlanders | -11.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
You sir got you round 16 predictions for the Blues-Brumbies and Waratahs-Hurricanes match wrong!!
8 years ago
True, I did. But that is not the point. The point is how the predictions perform over the long term, not in individual games, or even individual weeks. There are weeks where hardly any of the NRL predictions are correct, and others when all or nearly all are correct.
8 years ago