July 13, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.41 4.41 7.00
Cowboys 8.96 10.29 -1.30
Sharks 6.75 -1.06 7.80
Bulldogs 5.05 1.50 3.60
Broncos 3.55 9.81 -6.30
Raiders 2.95 -0.55 3.50
Eels 0.91 -4.62 5.50
Sea Eagles -0.31 0.36 -0.70
Roosters -1.29 11.20 -12.50
Panthers -2.11 -3.06 0.90
Warriors -2.22 -7.47 5.20
Titans -3.70 -8.39 4.70
Dragons -3.94 -0.10 -3.80
Rabbitohs -3.95 -1.20 -2.70
Wests Tigers -4.57 -4.06 -0.50
Knights -15.81 -5.41 -10.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 130 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Roosters Jul 08 22 – 18 5.40 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 09 32 – 22 9.60 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 10 10 – 26 -4.20 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 11 26 – 12 -5.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 15 Dragons 2.80
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 16 Sea Eagles 1.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jul 16 Broncos -4.50
4 Knights vs. Storm Jul 17 Storm -24.20
5 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 17 Eels -0.00
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 18 Sharks -5.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »