July 20, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.02 4.41 5.60
Cowboys 8.96 10.29 -1.30
Sharks 7.26 -1.06 8.30
Bulldogs 5.05 1.50 3.60
Broncos 4.63 9.81 -5.20
Raiders 2.95 -0.55 3.50
Eels 0.59 -4.62 5.20
Sea Eagles -0.38 0.36 -0.70
Panthers -1.79 -3.06 1.30
Roosters -1.80 11.20 -13.00
Warriors -2.15 -7.47 5.30
Titans -2.15 -8.39 6.20
Wests Tigers -4.57 -4.06 -0.50
Rabbitohs -5.03 -1.20 -3.80
Dragons -5.50 -0.10 -5.40
Knights -14.42 -5.41 -9.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 15 12 – 32 2.80 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 16 15 – 14 1.90 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jul 16 10 – 30 -4.50 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Storm Jul 17 16 – 20 -24.20 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 17 22 – 18 -0.00 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 18 20 – 32 -5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Jul 21 Cowboys 6.90
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 22 Broncos 9.40
3 Raiders vs. Warriors Jul 23 Raiders 9.10
4 Titans vs. Eels Jul 23 Titans 0.30
5 Storm vs. Roosters Jul 23 Storm 14.80
6 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 24 Sharks 24.70
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 Wests Tigers -0.90
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 Sea Eagles -1.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »