Going for the headlines
From Salon: Shock poll: Nate Silver’s election forecast now has Trump winning
That’s not either of his two forecasts, that’s the “now-cast”:
But one method to measure the convention bounce is to look at FiveThirtyEight’s now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election held today. We don’t usually spend a lot of time writing about the now-cast because — uhh, breaking news — the election is scheduled for Nov. 8.
Nate Silver’s actual election forecast:
59.5% is low enough to be worrying, but it isn’t less than 40.5%
Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »