July 27, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 10.93 10.29 0.60
Storm 10.11 4.41 5.70
Sharks 7.79 -1.06 8.80
Bulldogs 3.09 1.50 1.60
Broncos 2.71 9.81 -7.10
Raiders 2.54 -0.55 3.10
Panthers 0.13 -3.06 3.20
Sea Eagles 0.08 0.36 -0.30
Eels -0.77 -4.62 3.90
Titans -0.79 -8.39 7.60
Warriors -1.74 -7.47 5.70
Roosters -1.89 11.20 -13.10
Wests Tigers -3.72 -4.06 0.30
Rabbitohs -5.50 -1.20 -4.30
Dragons -6.35 -0.10 -6.30
Knights -14.95 -5.41 -9.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Jul 21 36 – 0 6.90 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 22 12 – 31 9.40 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Warriors Jul 23 26 – 22 9.10 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Eels Jul 23 34 – 14 0.30 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Roosters Jul 23 26 – 10 14.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 24 36 – 4 24.70 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 12 – 25 -0.90 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 12 – 20 -1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Jul 28 Broncos -1.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jul 29 Bulldogs 12.40
3 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 30 Warriors 2.10
4 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 Eels 6.00
5 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 30 Cowboys 3.80
6 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Jul 31 Raiders -5.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 31 Sea Eagles 18.00
8 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 01 Sharks -5.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »