Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 12.85 | 12.85 | 0.00 |
| Auckland | 11.34 | 11.34 | 0.00 |
| Tasman | 8.71 | 8.71 | 0.00 |
| Taranaki | 8.25 | 8.25 | 0.00 |
| Wellington | 4.32 | 4.32 | 0.00 |
| Counties Manukau | 2.45 | 2.45 | 0.00 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 1.85 | 1.85 | 0.00 |
| Otago | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.00 |
| Waikato | -4.31 | -4.31 | 0.00 |
| Bay of Plenty | -5.54 | -5.54 | 0.00 |
| Manawatu | -6.71 | -6.71 | 0.00 |
| North Harbour | -8.15 | -8.15 | 0.00 |
| Southland | -9.71 | -9.71 | 0.00 |
| Northland | -19.37 | -19.37 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 18 | Counties Manukau | -6.60 |
| 2 | Northland vs. Manawatu | Aug 19 | Manawatu | -8.70 |
| 3 | Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki | Aug 20 | Taranaki | -9.80 |
| 4 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington | Aug 20 | Hawke’s Bay | 1.50 |
| 5 | Canterbury vs. Auckland | Aug 20 | Canterbury | 5.50 |
| 6 | Southland vs. Otago | Aug 21 | Otago | -6.20 |
| 7 | Tasman vs. Waikato | Aug 21 | Tasman | 17.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Very interesting.
We are currently doing local live stats on these same matches. I wonder if you would have any interest in such data for analysis?
From a brief look, you method is feedback based? I have quite an extensive historical database, perhaps it would be interesting to talk.
8 years ago
Sorry, meant to say also some of our live data and a small part of the historical is available on http://therugby.nz, which includes a live match feed.
8 years ago