August 24, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 25

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.56 4.41 5.10
Cowboys 8.27 10.29 -2.00
Raiders 7.56 -0.55 8.10
Panthers 4.33 -3.06 7.40
Sharks 3.49 -1.06 4.50
Broncos 3.04 9.81 -6.80
Bulldogs 1.79 1.50 0.30
Roosters 1.52 11.20 -9.70
Titans -0.51 -8.39 7.90
Sea Eagles -0.74 0.36 -1.10
Wests Tigers -2.76 -4.06 1.30
Eels -2.91 -4.62 1.70
Warriors -3.58 -7.47 3.90
Rabbitohs -4.14 -1.20 -2.90
Dragons -6.10 -0.10 -6.00
Knights -17.16 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 18 20 – 10 3.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 40 – 10 6.90 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Titans Aug 20 6 – 26 -12.60 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 20 18 – 38 -5.20 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 20 34 – 6 13.90 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Eels Aug 21 28 – 18 14.10 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 21 42 – 6 6.70 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 22 12 – 6 -6.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 25 Cowboys -3.50
2 Storm vs. Broncos Aug 26 Storm 9.50
3 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Aug 27 Raiders -5.30
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 27 Panthers -1.80
5 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 27 Sharks 5.00
6 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Aug 28 Warriors 3.20
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 Rabbitohs -10.00
8 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 29 Eels 6.20

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »