August 31, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 17.64 12.85 4.80
Taranaki 9.51 8.25 1.30
Auckland 7.38 11.34 -4.00
Tasman 5.94 8.71 -2.80
Otago 4.05 0.54 3.50
Wellington 3.35 4.32 -1.00
Counties Manukau 1.05 2.45 -1.40
Hawke’s Bay -0.61 1.85 -2.50
Waikato -2.96 -4.31 1.30
Bay of Plenty -4.85 -5.54 0.70
Manawatu -7.34 -6.71 -0.60
North Harbour -7.55 -8.15 0.60
Southland -10.73 -9.71 -1.00
Northland -18.37 -19.37 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 25 44 – 21 0.70 TRUE
2 Manawatu vs. Southland Aug 26 34 – 31 8.40 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 37 – 15 31.50 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. North Harbour Aug 27 26 – 15 8.10 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 27 55 – 28 11.30 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 28 45 – 14 12.30 TRUE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 28 39 – 34 11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Northland Aug 31 Otago 26.40
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 01 Hawke’s Bay 2.30
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 02 Auckland -14.10
4 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 03 Tasman 0.40
5 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 03 Wellington 14.90
6 Northland vs. Canterbury Sep 03 Canterbury -32.00
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Sep 04 Otago -4.90
8 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 04 Waikato 8.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Graham Goldie

    Is there a reason you’re picking tasman over taranaki ? I would have thought taranaki

    8 years ago

    • avatar

      I apply a statistical algorithm. Computer says Tasman.

      8 years ago

    • avatar
      Megan Pledger

      It’s by .4 of a point so it’s pretty close to 50:50.

      Anyway, Tasman won, 25-20.

      8 years ago

  • avatar
    ross clarke

    when do you put your weekly selections up and what time i hope its before the first game on wed

    8 years ago

    • avatar

      I usually aim for Wednesday morning. Maybe with Mitre 10 Cup on Wednesday I might go for Tuesday. Some anxiety amongst readers it seems.

      8 years ago