August 31, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 8.64 10.29 -1.70
Storm 8.21 4.41 3.80
Raiders 8.19 -0.55 8.70
Sharks 4.87 -1.06 5.90
Broncos 4.38 9.81 -5.40
Panthers 4.26 -3.06 7.30
Bulldogs 1.43 1.50 -0.10
Roosters 0.14 11.20 -11.10
Titans -0.44 -8.39 7.90
Sea Eagles -1.36 0.36 -1.70
Wests Tigers -1.70 -4.06 2.40
Eels -2.45 -4.62 2.20
Rabbitohs -3.29 -1.20 -2.10
Warriors -4.64 -7.47 2.80
Dragons -6.57 -0.10 -6.50
Knights -18.01 -5.41 -12.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 25 16 – 24 -3.50 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Broncos Aug 26 16 – 26 9.50 FALSE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Aug 27 30 – 44 -5.30 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 27 14 – 15 -1.80 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 27 37 – 12 5.00 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Aug 28 24 – 36 3.20 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 12 – 34 -10.00 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 29 30 – 18 6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Sep 01 Broncos 7.20
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Sep 02 Bulldogs 7.70
3 Dragons vs. Knights Sep 03 Dragons 14.40
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 03 Cowboys 12.10
5 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 03 Storm 6.30
6 Warriors vs. Eels Sep 04 Warriors 1.80
7 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Sep 04 Raiders -6.90
8 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Sep 04 Panthers 8.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »