NRL Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 8.88 | 8.49 | 0.40 |
| Cowboys | 7.46 | 6.90 | 0.60 |
| Sharks | 7.40 | 5.84 | 1.60 |
| Raiders | 7.04 | 9.94 | -2.90 |
| Panthers | 5.37 | 6.08 | -0.70 |
| Broncos | 5.15 | 4.36 | 0.80 |
| Eels | 1.27 | -0.81 | 2.10 |
| Roosters | 0.12 | -1.17 | 1.30 |
| Bulldogs | -1.22 | -1.34 | 0.10 |
| Rabbitohs | -1.70 | -1.82 | 0.10 |
| Titans | -3.77 | -0.98 | -2.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.67 | -3.89 | -0.80 |
| Sea Eagles | -5.52 | -2.98 | -2.50 |
| Dragons | -5.91 | -7.74 | 1.80 |
| Warriors | -7.31 | -6.02 | -1.30 |
| Knights | -14.65 | -16.94 | 2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 43.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Bulldogs | Mar 09 | 28 – 24 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Storm | Mar 10 | 10 – 26 | -11.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 10 | 20 – 21 | 1.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Knights vs. Titans | Mar 11 | 34 – 26 | -10.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 11 | 18 – 38 | 3.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Mar 11 | 16 – 42 | 8.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | Mar 12 | 2 – 36 | -1.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Eels | Mar 12 | 16 – 34 | -1.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Broncos | Mar 16 | Storm | 7.20 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Warriors | Mar 17 | Bulldogs | 10.10 |
| 3 | Titans vs. Eels | Mar 17 | Eels | -1.50 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 18 | Rabbitohs | -9.50 |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Mar 18 | Panthers | 8.80 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 18 | Cowboys | 16.50 |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 19 | Raiders | 15.20 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Dragons | Mar 19 | Sharks | 16.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David , i look at your predictions , this NRl according too Community Stats on superbru . Broncos 17 percent of users predict their win, Bulldogs will be a mini upset . If Titans beat Eels it will be a upset according too the people.
I d isagree with you on the Raiders vs West Tigers game , Raiders is very weak , even they lost too Cronualla Sharks . So West Tigers is not a team too be underestimated.
We will see what will be the outcomes , like i told you in Jaguars vs Lions game , i told you not too underestimate the Jaguars and boom Jaguars won at home .The Lions didn’t play too well in that game.
7 years ago