March 21, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 8.94 9.94 -1.00
Storm 8.44 8.49 -0.00
Sharks 5.65 5.84 -0.20
Broncos 5.58 4.36 1.20
Cowboys 4.58 6.90 -2.30
Panthers 4.51 6.08 -1.60
Roosters 0.98 -1.17 2.10
Eels 0.20 -0.81 1.00
Bulldogs -1.04 -1.34 0.30
Rabbitohs -2.01 -1.82 -0.20
Sea Eagles -2.63 -2.98 0.30
Titans -2.70 -0.98 -1.70
Dragons -4.15 -7.74 3.60
Wests Tigers -6.57 -3.89 -2.70
Warriors -7.48 -6.02 -1.50
Knights -14.34 -16.94 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 45.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos Mar 16 14 – 12 7.20 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Mar 17 24 – 12 10.10 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Eels Mar 17 26 – 14 -1.50 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Mar 18 18 – 24 -9.50 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 18 12 – 14 8.80 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Mar 18 8 – 30 16.50 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 19 46 – 6 15.20 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 19 10 – 16 16.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 23 Rabbitohs 0.50
2 Panthers vs. Knights Mar 24 Panthers 22.30
3 Broncos vs. Raiders Mar 24 Broncos 0.10
4 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 25 Sea Eagles 1.90
5 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 25 Sharks -2.00
6 Titans vs. Cowboys Mar 25 Cowboys -3.80
7 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Mar 26 Storm -11.50
8 Dragons vs. Warriors Mar 26 Dragons 7.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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