March 21, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.79 13.22 4.60
Chiefs 10.88 9.75 1.10
Crusaders 7.98 8.75 -0.80
Lions 7.32 7.64 -0.30
Highlanders 7.27 9.17 -1.90
Brumbies 4.06 3.83 0.20
Stormers 2.68 1.51 1.20
Waratahs 1.75 5.81 -4.10
Blues 0.98 -1.07 2.10
Sharks 0.70 0.42 0.30
Bulls -1.40 0.29 -1.70
Jaguares -1.70 -4.36 2.70
Force -8.10 -9.45 1.40
Cheetahs -8.14 -7.36 -0.80
Reds -9.75 -10.28 0.50
Rebels -11.97 -8.17 -3.80
Kings -17.66 -19.02 1.40
Sunwolves -19.78 -17.76 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Mar 17 33 – 24 10.70 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs Mar 17 14 – 27 -19.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sunwolves Mar 17 34 – 21 23.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 18 41 – 15 12.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 18 12 – 28 3.50 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Reds Mar 18 44 – 14 19.80 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Kings Mar 18 19 – 17 24.60 TRUE
8 Jaguares vs. Cheetahs Mar 18 41 – 14 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Force Mar 24 Crusaders 20.10
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 24 Waratahs -10.20
3 Blues vs. Bulls Mar 25 Blues 6.40
4 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 25 Brumbies 0.80
5 Sunwolves vs. Stormers Mar 25 Stormers -18.50
6 Kings vs. Lions Mar 25 Lions -21.50
7 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Mar 25 Sharks -5.30
8 Jaguares vs. Reds Mar 25 Jaguares 12.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Jaco Griesel

    Looks good! I wouldn’t bet on the predicted outcome of the Brumbies/Highlanders game though… ;-)

    1 month ago Reply

  • avatar

    Your analysis basically picks the margin which is interesting , but your results do not show the margins results , which is not interesting/challenging. The correct success rate should be whether your model did better [true] or worse[false] than the predicted margins. Same goes for the NRL.

    1 month ago Reply

    • avatar
      Thomas Lumley

      If you felt like doing this analysis and putting it up on the web, we’d probably link to it.

      1 month ago Reply

  • avatar
    David Pettit

    Hi David, have you ever looked into modelling for betting handicaps and totals? If so, what was your conclusion? If not, would you consider it?

    1 month ago Reply

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