March 28, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.79 13.22 4.60
Chiefs 10.88 9.75 1.10
Crusaders 8.45 8.75 -0.30
Highlanders 7.61 9.17 -1.60
Lions 7.41 7.64 -0.20
Brumbies 3.71 3.83 -0.10
Stormers 2.36 1.51 0.90
Blues 2.04 -1.07 3.10
Waratahs 1.55 5.81 -4.30
Sharks 0.85 0.42 0.40
Jaguares -1.58 -4.36 2.80
Bulls -2.46 0.29 -2.70
Cheetahs -8.30 -7.36 -0.90
Force -8.57 -9.45 0.90
Reds -9.87 -10.28 0.40
Rebels -11.78 -8.17 -3.60
Kings -17.75 -19.02 1.30
Sunwolves -19.45 -17.76 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Force Mar 24 45 – 17 20.10 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 24 25 – 32 -10.20 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Bulls Mar 25 38 – 14 6.40 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 25 13 – 18 0.80 FALSE
5 Sunwolves vs. Stormers Mar 25 31 – 44 -18.50 TRUE
6 Kings vs. Lions Mar 25 19 – 42 -21.50 TRUE
7 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Mar 25 30 – 38 -5.30 TRUE
8 Jaguares vs. Reds Mar 25 22 – 8 12.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Mar 31 Highlanders 23.40
2 Blues vs. Force Apr 01 Blues 14.60
3 Chiefs vs. Bulls Apr 01 Chiefs 17.30
4 Reds vs. Hurricanes Apr 01 Hurricanes -23.70
5 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Apr 01 Stormers 14.20
6 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 01 Lions 10.10
7 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 02 Crusaders -2.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    sam smith

    Really hope the chiefs and hurricanes matches are safe to bet 13 & over on. Really hope.

    4 months ago

    • avatar
      Livy Hulo

      It’s only good to bet 13+ and over against Rebels, Sun-wolves, Bulls, Cheetahs and Force. These teams will Guarantee you an awesome win
      $10 will return will $147. If 2 top teams play off. Bet
      (Either 7 and under and/or draw)
      Top teams are;Chiefs vs Stormers,
      Crusaders vs Jaguares, lions vs Hurricanes. The lower the score the higher the money.
      7 under and/or draw.
      Gamble responsibly. 😊

      4 months ago