April 4, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.51 13.22 4.30
Chiefs 10.80 9.75 1.00
Crusaders 9.42 8.75 0.70
Highlanders 8.55 9.17 -0.60
Lions 7.10 7.64 -0.50
Stormers 4.09 1.51 2.60
Brumbies 3.71 3.83 -0.10
Blues 1.70 -1.07 2.80
Sharks 1.16 0.42 0.70
Waratahs 0.59 5.81 -5.20
Jaguares -1.58 -4.36 2.80
Bulls -2.38 0.29 -2.70
Force -8.24 -9.45 1.20
Reds -9.59 -10.28 0.70
Cheetahs -10.03 -7.36 -2.70
Rebels -12.72 -8.17 -4.60
Kings -17.75 -19.02 1.30
Sunwolves -19.45 -17.76 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Mar 31 51 – 12 23.40 TRUE
2 Blues vs. Force Apr 01 24 – 15 14.60 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Bulls Apr 01 28 – 12 17.30 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Hurricanes Apr 01 15 – 34 -23.70 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Apr 01 53 – 10 14.20 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 01 34 – 29 10.10 TRUE
7 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 02 22 – 41 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Apr 07 Hurricanes 20.90
2 Sunwolves vs. Bulls Apr 08 Bulls -13.10
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 08 Highlanders 10.40
4 Brumbies vs. Reds Apr 08 Brumbies 16.80
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Apr 08 Sharks 6.70
6 Stormers vs. Chiefs Apr 08 Chiefs -2.70
7 Force vs. Kings Apr 09 Force 13.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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