April 11, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 10.11 9.94 0.20
Storm 8.06 8.49 -0.40
Broncos 6.26 4.36 1.90
Sharks 6.05 5.84 0.20
Panthers 3.62 6.08 -2.50
Cowboys 2.98 6.90 -3.90
Dragons 0.52 -7.74 8.30
Roosters -0.12 -1.17 1.00
Sea Eagles -1.49 -2.98 1.50
Eels -1.82 -0.81 -1.00
Rabbitohs -2.39 -1.82 -0.60
Bulldogs -2.67 -1.34 -1.30
Titans -4.83 -0.98 -3.90
Wests Tigers -5.99 -3.89 -2.10
Warriors -6.28 -6.02 -0.30
Knights -14.05 -16.94 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 06 32 – 8 7.30 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Apr 07 12 – 22 -7.40 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 07 20 – 21 11.50 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Apr 08 10 – 35 6.20 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Raiders Apr 08 16 – 42 -8.70 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Apr 08 16 – 26 16.50 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Eels Apr 09 22 – 10 -2.80 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 09 2 – 11 8.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 14 Bulldogs 3.20
2 Knights vs. Roosters Apr 14 Roosters -10.40
3 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 14 Broncos 14.60
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 15 Storm -6.10
5 Raiders vs. Warriors Apr 15 Raiders 20.40
6 Dragons vs. Cowboys Apr 15 Dragons 1.00
7 Panthers vs. Sharks Apr 16 Panthers 1.10
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 17 Eels 7.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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