April 17, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.41 13.22 3.20
Crusaders 10.32 8.75 1.60
Chiefs 10.03 9.75 0.30
Highlanders 8.29 9.17 -0.90
Lions 7.95 7.64 0.30
Stormers 3.88 1.51 2.40
Brumbies 3.73 3.83 -0.10
Blues 2.40 -1.07 3.50
Waratahs 1.24 5.81 -4.60
Sharks 1.05 0.42 0.60
Jaguares -2.12 -4.36 2.20
Bulls -2.58 0.29 -2.90
Force -8.75 -9.45 0.70
Cheetahs -9.90 -7.36 -2.50
Reds -10.42 -10.28 -0.10
Rebels -11.76 -8.17 -3.60
Kings -17.38 -19.02 1.60
Sunwolves -19.50 -17.76 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Sunwolves Apr 14 50 – 3 32.00 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Kings Apr 15 47 – 34 10.70 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 15 24 – 28 -11.40 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Brumbies Apr 15 19 – 17 -13.90 FALSE
5 Cheetahs vs. Chiefs Apr 15 27 – 41 -16.20 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Lions Apr 15 16 – 29 1.10 FALSE
7 Bulls vs. Jaguares Apr 15 26 – 13 2.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Apr 21 Hurricanes 16.70
2 Lions vs. Jaguares Apr 21 Lions 14.10
3 Highlanders vs. Sunwolves Apr 22 Highlanders 31.80
4 Crusaders vs. Stormers Apr 22 Crusaders 10.40
5 Waratahs vs. Kings Apr 22 Waratahs 22.60
6 Force vs. Chiefs Apr 22 Chiefs -14.80
7 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 22 Bulls 10.80
8 Sharks vs. Rebels Apr 22 Sharks 16.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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